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The Maths of the World?s Carbon Budget

For Tuesday 9 June 2020 provided by (#letsfindsolutions)

News for green investors and organisations, stock watch & grant opportunities

The Maths of the World?s Carbon Budget

The world has just hit another new 800,000 year record high for heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Measurements of carbon dioxide, the chief human-caused greenhouse gas, averaged 417.10 parts per million at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the month of May. This is the time of year when carbon levels in the air peak. It’s 2.4 parts per million higher than a year ago despite reduced emissions because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Even though emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels dropped by as much 17% in April, it was a brief decline. Carbon dioxide can stay in the air for centuries, so the short-term reductions of new carbon pollution for a few months don’t have much of a big-picture effect, said NOAA senior scientist Pieter Tans.

Records with direct measurements go back to 1958 and carbon dioxide levels are now nearly 100 parts per million higher than then. That is a 31% increase in 62 years.

The link between global temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations, especially CO2, has been true throughout Earth?s history.

The chart above shows the global average concentrations of CO2?in the atmosphere over the past 800,000 years. From the start of this period to the industrial revolution, the concentration of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere fluctuated from about 180 parts per million (ppm) to 280 ppm as part of Milankovitch cycle-driven changes to Earth?s climate coinciding with the onset of ice

ages (low CO2) and interglacials (high CO2).?The Milankovitch cycles are the changes in the orbit of the earth around the sun (including the earth?s tilt angle).

So, what is the world?s carbon budget?

The models by the IPCC indicate that the remaining budget to have a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5?C (which includes all the Kyoto greenhouse gases including methane, nitrous oxide and human-made varieties) is approximately 40GtCO2-e until 2100. That is a little more than one year?s current global greenhouse gas emissions, so forget a 1.5?C target.

To limit warming to 2?C, the budget is approximately 770Gt to 2050. That is a little over 25GtCO2-e per annum.

Last year the total global greenhouse gas emissions were 36GtCO2-e and climbing. The graph above shows different scenarios for emission rates out to 2100. On current policies, we can expect a 3.7?C rise by 2100, not including possible tipping point implications.

There is an expression: the numbers don?t lie. The sooner the world?s economies accept the maths of greenhouse gas atmospheric concentration, the sooner we will drive reform.

Grants/Subsidies/Funding ? Homebuilder grant

The Federal Government will give eligible Australians $25,000 to build or substantially renovate their homes, in an effort to boost demand in the construction sector and keep builders employed.

Eligibility for the Government’s program, which it has dubbed “HomeBuilder”, will be restricted to substantial renovations and the construction of new homes, with recipients required to spend at least $150,000 before being eligible.

The grants will be means-tested to exclude couples making more than $200,000 per year and individuals making more than $125,000 per year, while limits will also be placed on the value of the property the grants go towards.

New builds will be capped at $750,000, while renovations can cost anywhere between $150,000 and $750,000, but will only be subsidised if the house being altered is valued at less than $1.5 million.

HomeBuilder will?be available only for?building?contracts signed before 31 December 2020 and where construction or renovation starts?within?three months of the contract?date. The scheme will not apply to investment properties or owners who intend on building or renovating on their

own without the help of builders. A further requirement of the grant is that the builder used is licensed or registered before the Government’s announcement.

Everlution notes the Homebuilder program is a missed opportunity to deliver sustainability benefits that would save owners money in the long run. The A$25,000 grant for new homes and renovations could have been better leveraged to provide?for the ongoing benefits by improving the thermal performance of homes. This would have made these homes cheaper to run too.

Eco-tip for the day ? The bus

The average?CO2 emissions?for buses?come in at 104 grams per passenger kilometre. A small car with one passenger averages 170 grams per passenger kilometre, while a train works out at 55 grams per passenger kilometre.

Share watch ? Novonix (NVX:ASX)?

Lithium-ion battery materials and testing pioneer?Novonix?s share price has rocketed amid rumours the company may announce a partnership with electric vehicle giant Tesla, the imminent commercialisation of a supply agreement with Samsung, and breakthrough research.

The media rumours follow Tesla chief executive officer Elon Musk postponing the company?s Battery Day event from May till June after tantalising spectators for months that he was unveiling major advancements in battery technology.

According to?Reuters, in conjunction with China?s Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd (CATL), Tesla has developed a low-cost battery that could power an electric vehicle for a million miles.

Sources close to?Reuters?said the new million-mile battery will be launched in China with electric Teslas anticipated to compete cost-wise with a standard internal combustion engine vehicle.

The newswire?s sources said Tesla?s new batteries will either be cobalt-free or have low levels of the mineral as well as additional chemicals, materials and coatings to reduce internal stress and boost storage capacity.

Renowned lithium-ion battery innovator Jeff Dahn and his Dalhousie University team in Nova Scotia have been collaborating with Tesla since 2016, with a number of the new battery advancements purportedly originating from Mr Dahn?s lab including the chemical additives and nano-engineered materials to strengthen lithium-ion batteries against environmental stressors to boost life span.

Novonix comes into the picture due to its relationship with Dr Dahn?s lab. The company was spun out of the lab in 2013. The company has two main business divisions ? Novonix BTS, which focuses on battery technology solutions and is based in Nova Scotia.

In the US is the PUREgraphite division, which is focused on developing high performing, lower cost battery materials. Novonix already manufactures what it claims is the ?highest accuracy battery test equipment in the world? which is already used by Tesla, along with Apple, Microsoft, CATL, GM, Panasonic and other manufacturing majors.

Novonix?s team includes co-founder Dr David Stevens who was a former research associate of Dr Dahn?s.

Fellow Novonix co-founder and chief executive officer of Novonix BTS Dr Chris Burns also worked with Dr Dahn prior to the spin out. In addition to producing world class manufacturing equipment, Dr Burns said Novonix had used its testing technology to develop a new synthetic pure graphite anode material.

He added the 2018 agreement with Samsung would come into effect this year, where Novonix will supply an initial 500t of its synthetic graphite to Samsung. Novonix then plans to scale that to supplying various gigafactories in North America with up to ?thousands of tonnes? of synthetic graphite over the coming years.

Dr Burns pointed out the deal with Samsung was the first time any company in North America had collared a materials supply agreement contract for graphite to any of the big five battery manufacturers.

?It shows growth can come outside of Asia.?

The month graph of its share price shows a hugh leap, with a 76% rise today.

Financial indicators

The VIX fear gauge up by 3.19 points since Friday EST to 26.05.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average up since last Friday EST by 1,290.62 points or 4.91% to 27,572.44, the STOXX 600 up 1.90 points or 0.51% to 373.54 and the Shanghai Composite index up 25.31 points or 0.86% to 2,956.11.

Gold down to 1,703.50. US 10-year Treasury Bonds at 0.858 and oil up to 38.30. Cryptos Bitcoin down 94.44 points since Friday or 0.97% to 9,687.75.

ASX 200 up 293.80 points or 5.06% since Friday to 56,144.90. The Aussie dollar down to 69.21 US cents.


Eco Market Spot Prices

LGC $34.10

STC $39.65

ESC $25.60

VEEC $31.80

Sources:?RenewEconomy, demandmanager,? Reuters, SMH, Market Watch, Forbes

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